Global diesel supply is expected to remain tight amid limited spare refining capacity, Russia’s export ban, and rising winter demand, industry executives said, as reported by Reuters.

Vitol CEO Russell Hardy said around 2 million barrels per day (mmbl/d) of Russian products and nearly 2 mmbbl/d from the Middle East are missing from global markets due to disruptions linked to the wars in Ukraine and Iran. While crude supply is stronger, with the Middle East exporting around 9 mmbbl/d of crude and 1 mmbbl/d of products, insufficient refining capacity is preventing inventories from recovering.

Hardy said global stockpiles are nearing their lowest levels, while Phillips 66 Senior Vice President of Global Trading Mark Senn noted that most US refineries are already operating at full capacity. He expects tight diesel inventories ahead of winter to support continued market strength.

US diesel prices recently hit record highs, while the diesel crack spread reached an intraday record of $108.02 per barrel.

Hardy expects high prices and limited fuel availability to reduce global oil demand by around 1.5 mmbbl/d in 2026 compared with 2025. He also described the 5 –6 mmbbl/d gap in China’s crude imports between 2025 and 2026 as unsustainable, expecting the gap to narrow toward year-end to ensure adequate winter fuel supplies.