OPEC+ oil-producing countries are expected to approve an additional increase in their production target for July during their upcoming meeting on Sunday, three sources told Reuters, even as geopolitical tensions and supply constraints continue to affect output.

The anticipated increase of around 188,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) would match the hike agreed for June, which was revised down from an initial 206,000 bbl/d following the UAE exit from the group in May.

The move signals that OPEC+ is gradually returning to normal production policy, despite disruptions caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the ongoing Iran war, which have hindered several members from meeting previous output targets.

The seven remaining participating countries are implementing a phased rollback of the 1.65 million barrels per day (mmbbl/d) production cut initially agreed upon in 2023, when the alliance still included eight members.

With the UAE’s departure effective May 1, approximately 567,000 bbl/d of the original cuts will remain to be restored starting in July, based on Reuters calculations.

If the group continues with monthly increases of roughly 188,000 bbl/d through August and September, the remaining production cuts are expected to be fully unwound by the end of the third quarter.