Global oil demand is forecast to increase by 0.6 million barrels per day (mmbbl/d) in 2026, year on year (YoY), according to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), following a slight downward revision from its previous assessment.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries are expected to record a marginal decline of around 40,000 barrels per day  (bbl/d) in oil demand during 2026, while demand in non-OECD countries is projected to rise by approximately 0.6 mmbbl/d.

OECD countries generally refer to the group of developed economies that are members of the organization, including countries such as the US, Canada, the UK, Germany, France, Japan, South Korea, and Australia.

Global oil demand growth is expected to accelerate in 2027, reaching around 2.2 mmbbl/d annually, following an upward revision from OPEC’s previous forecast. Demand in OECD countries is projected to increase by around 0.3 mb/d, while non-OECD demand is expected to grow by approximately 1.8 mmbbl/d.

Non-OECD Countries outside the OECD, including China, India, Brazil, and many Middle Eastern and African countries.

On the supply side, liquids production from countries outside the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) is forecast to rise by around 0.6 mmbbl/d in both 2026 and 2027, unchanged from OPEC’s previous assessment.

DOC refers to the cooperation framework between OPEC member countries and participating non-OPEC oil-producing countries to coordinate oil production policies and support market stability.

In 2026, Brazil, the US, Canada, and Argentina are expected to be the main contributors to non-DoC liquids supply growth. In 2027, production growth is projected to be led by Qatar, Canada, Brazil, and Argentina.

Meanwhile, natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from DoC participating countries are forecast to increase by around 0.1 mmbbl/d  YoY in 2026, averaging 8.8 mmbbl/d. A further increase of approximately 0.1 mmbbl/d is expected in 2027, bringing the average to around 8.9 mmbbl/d.

Crude oil production by countries participating in the DoC increased by 1.42 mmbbl/d in August compared to  July, reaching an average of around 37.66 mmbbl/d, based on available secondary sources.