The collapse of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire could keep Brent crude near $100 per barrel through 2026, according to updated forecasts from Rapidan Energy Group, a Washington-based energy and geopolitical consultancy.

Rapidan raised its fourth-quarter Brent price forecast to about $100 per barrel, up from $85, citing expectations that disruptions in Strait of Hormuz trade will persist longer than previously anticipated.

The firm warned Brent could climb to $105 per barrel in the coming months if hopes for a peace deal fade and markets price in tighter supply and demand.

In a research note Friday, Rapidan analysts said the breakdown between the U.S. and Iran has significantly altered their outlook. The key question, they noted, is whether both sides will limit attacks to military targets or escalate to civilian infrastructure, such as power and water facilities.

The forecast assumes shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will only partially recover by late next year. Rapidan expects transit volumes to reach about 35% of pre-conflict levels by October 2026 and 65% by 2027.

Global energy markets have been volatile since the U.S.-Iran ceasefire collapsed and military tensions renewed, with Red Sea maritime trade also disrupted by ongoing Houthi attacks.

Major Wall Street institutions have also revised their oil outlooks. Goldman Sachs analysts recently said prolonged disruptions could push Brent above $120 per barrel.

Brent crude topped $100 per barrel for the first time in two months amid escalating Washington-Tehran tensions and is on track for monthly gains exceeding 30%.

Rapidan now expects the global oil market to stay in deficit for at least another year, though weaker Chinese demand may partially offset price pressures. If Brent stays in the $90-$100 range, China is expected to draw down crude inventories below 500,000 barrels per day through 2026 before resuming stockpiling in early 2027.