The International Energy Agency (IEA) has cautioned that the European Union’s (EU) upcoming methane emissions requirements could significantly reduce the range of crude oil available to European refiners, raising concerns over supply flexibility and energy security.

Under the EU’s methane regulation, imports of crude oil and natural gas will be required from January 2027 to comply with methane emissions monitoring standards that are equivalent to those applied within the EU or aligned with the UN -supported Oil and Gas Methane Partnership (OGMP) 2.0 framework.

In its latest monthly oil market report, the IEA said that around 22.5 million barrels per day (mmbbl/d) of global oil production is expected to meet OGMP 2.0 standards by 2027. However, the agency noted that only part of this compliant production is likely to be available to European buyers.

The EU imported approximately 9.3 million bpd of crude oil in 2025. According to the IEA, the volume of internationally traded crude grades that EU refiners can legally source under the new rules could shrink by more than half.

The agency explained that not all crude oil grades can be easily replaced, while some producing countries may choose to supply markets offering stronger commercial returns outside Europe. It highlighted heavy crude, widely used in asphalt production, as an example, noting that major suppliers including Mexico and Venezuela do not currently meet the EU’s methane reporting requirements.

The IEA warned that a narrower supply pool could increase feedstock costs for European refiners or force them to process less suitable crude grades, potentially affecting refinery efficiency and the bloc’s overall energy security.
The agency also called on the European Union to provide greater clarity on how the methane regulation will be implemented, arguing that continued uncertainty could further limit market participation and reduce available supplies.

The issue is expected to be discussed by EU ambassadors in Brussels after more than half of the bloc’s member states—including Germany, Italy and the Czech Republic—called for postponing the regulation, citing concerns that the new requirements could disrupt oil and gas supplies.

Environmental groups, however, have urged EU policymakers to proceed with the methane rules, arguing that methane remains the second-largest contributor to global warming after carbon dioxide. They also contend that global oil and gas production already meeting EU and OGMP 2.0 standards exceeds the bloc’s current import requirements.

Implementation challenges remain. No EU member state has yet established an accredited verification body to certify compliance with the methane regulation, leaving companies without a formal mechanism to demonstrate adherence to the new standards.

Meanwhile, the European Commission has prepared draft proposals that would waive penalties for companies found in breach of the methane rules, while maintaining its position against delaying the regulation’s planned implementation.