The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 to 780,000 barrels per day (bbl/d), marking the third consecutive downward revision, according to OPEC’s monthly oil market report.
The producer group maintained that the impact of the war in Iran on global oil consumption has been less severe than estimated by other forecasters, including the International Energy Agency (IEA). At the same time, OPEC raised its forecast for oil demand growth in 2027, citing expectations of stronger global economic performance during the remainder of the year.
The report noted that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil shipping routes, disrupted production of millions of barrels of oil per day in the Middle East for several months. Output has begun to recover following an interim peace agreement between Iran and the United States, although renewed military strikes have revived concerns over the security of oil shipments through the region.
OPEC said the global economy remained broadly resilient during the first half of 2026, adding that any easing of geopolitical tensions could provide upside potential for economic growth in the second half of the year if energy markets and trade flows continue to stabilize.
The organization revised down its 2026 oil demand growth forecast from the previous estimate of 970,000 bbl/d to 780,000 bbl/d.
For 2027, OPEC now expects global oil demand to increase by 1.94 million barrels per day (mmbbl/d), up 210,000 bbl/d from its previous forecast.
Meanwhile, OPEC+, which includes OPEC members and allies such as Russia, had agreed to resume production increases from April. However, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz prevented the group from raising output to agreed quota levels.
According to secondary sources cited in the report, OPEC+ crude oil production averaged 36.28 mmbbl/d in June, an increase of about 3 mmbbl/d from May, as Gulf producers resumed output that had been suspended during the Iran war.
The report added that the May production figures included the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which withdrew from both OPEC and OPEC+ on May 1.
