British Petroleum (bp) expects a lower upstream production of between 2.17 million and 2.22 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (mmboe/d) in the second quarter (Q2) of 2026, down from 2.339 mmboe/d in the first quarter (Q1), according to its latest trading update. The company attributed the lower output to seasonal maintenance, mainly in the Gulf of America, and disruptions in the Middle East.

Of the expected upstream production, bp forecasts gas and low-carbon energy output at 750,000 to 770,000 boe/d, down from 798,000 boe/d in Q1. Oil production and operations are expected to reach 1.42 million to 1.45 million boe/d, compared with 1.541 million boe/d in Q1.

Despite the expected drop in production, bp sees stronger oil and gas prices, along with higher refining margins, to offset Q2 earnings.

Higher natural gas prices are expected to add $500 million to $700 million to earnings from the company’s gas and low-carbon energy business, while gas trading results are expected to remain broadly flat from the previous quarter.

In its oil production and operations business, higher crude prices are expected to increase earnings by $1.8 billion to $2.1 billion. The company said the gains also reflect the delayed impact of higher oil prices on production in the Gulf of America and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

In its downstream business, bp expects higher refining margins (profits on each barrel of crude processed into fuels) to add $1.2 billion to $1.4 billion to earnings, offsetting lower refinery output of 1.445 million to 1.475 million barrels per day (bbl/d), down from 1.527 million bbl/d in Q1 2026.

Furthermore, bp noted that Q2 results are expected to include an asset impairment loss of around $1 billion, primarily related to its low-carbon energy transition business.