Europe is expected to face a jet fuel supply shortfall of around 510,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2026, despite increasing imports from distant suppliers including South Korea, according to Reuters, citing analysts and shipping data.

In comparison, the US is expected to record a surplus of 18,000 bbl/d, while the Asia-Pacific region could have a surplus of 419,000 bbl/d, according to Energy Aspects.

The US-Israeli war on Iran has affected supplies from the Middle East and reduced around half of Europe’s jet fuel imports. Jet fuel is one of the middle distillates, a group that also includes diesel and gas oil.

Since the conflict outbreak, Europe has increased its jet fuel imports from countries including Nigeria, the US, and Canada.

In addition, South Korea has emerged as a major supplier of jet fuel to Europe, given that price difference between Asian and European markets is making it more profitable for suppliers to send jet fuel to Europe.

European imports of South Korean jet fuel have averaged around 129,000 bbl/d so far in September, the highest level since October 2022 as Reuters reported.

The increase in imports comes as jet fuel inventories at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) refining and storage hub fell to their lowest level in seven years in the week ending September 10.

Meanwhile, South Korea’s jet fuel production reached a seven-year high of nearly 13.89 million barrels (mmbb/s) in July. This came as a result of South Korea’s refineries processed around 2.7 mmbbl/d in July, up 16% from June.