Features / Political Review
CHECKMATE: ENI SHAKES UP THE MEDITERRANEAN STATUS QUO
Sometimes in life, as in chess, a single movement may determine the outcome of an entire game. In this sense, Eni’s discovery of massive gas deposits in Egypt could be the checkmate that Israeli gas exports have long anticipated –and dreaded–. With a Queen who can now move more freely than ever on the chessboard, the question is now focused on how Israel will react to the threat.
OIL AND INDEPENDENCE: DISSECTING THE REPUBLIC OF SOUTH SUDAN
South Sudan enjoys the twin status of being the youngest nation in the world and, at the same time, the most oil-dependent country on the planet. 98% of South Sudan’s export revenues are from hydrocarbons. Being the new kid on the block, however, does not mean it does not know how to wield oil as a weapon, both regionally and internationally. There is much that can be learned here, both good and bad. One of the most amazing things about South Sudan, from a petroleum perspective, is that it even exists. To cite Khaled Medani of McGill University—a speaker at a recent conference on South Sudan— “If I was President Omar Al-Bashir, I wouldn’t have allowed the South to go independent, if only because of all the oil.”
THE BLACK WELL OF ANGOLA: AN OIL-RICH COUNTRY IN DESPAIR
Below the equator’s belt on the African continent, Angola sits in relative silence. Conflict ridden for years, the country switched from a war of independence that lasted over a decade to a civil war more than double in length. For 26 years, the country was split in two in a bloody civil war-pegged as the last proxy of the Cold War- that it only emerged from a little over a decade ago.
MODELS OF ENDURANCE: ARAB GULF STATES BETWEEN OIL PRICES AND GEOPOLITICS
The initial focus of his talk was Christopher Davidson’s After the Sheikhs: The Coming Collapse of the Gulf Monarchies, predicting the ultimate demise of these royal families as he did in his previous book, published before the Arab Spring. Davidson explained how these monarchies weathered this latest storm, just as they have withstood Arab nationalism, socialism, and republican coups. A flaw in Davidson’s interpretation of the scene, can be viewed through his insistence that oil and religion explain how the gulf monarchies accomplished this feat, a set of answers that betrays a profound ignorance of the paradoxical nature of oil economics and the dynamic nature of stability in the region.
WAR-TORN LIBYA FIGHTS FOR ITS FUTURE ONE BARREL AT A TIME
Amid the airstrikes, political declarations, and hostage taking, there is another, little-known war being waged; one whose outcome will surely determine the ultimate winners and losers in the battle for Libya. This war is being fought over the country’s single most important feature.
Yemen’s “Gate of Tears”: the Strategic Red Sea Strait of Bab El Mandeb
Bab El Mandeb has long been a historical and civilizational chokepoint where the shortest trade routes between Europe, North Africa, India, and East Asia can be controlled—or stopped. However, recent events in Yemen, with Houthi rebels in control of a number of ports along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, and the Arab bombing campaign of Yemen—which Egypt is party to—have made the future of the straights uncertain. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, an estimated 3.8 million b/d of crude oil and refined petroleum passed through the Bab El-Mandeb waterway in 2013, making it a critical junction for world trade.
EGYPT, THE FUTURE
World leaders pouring in from all over the world, handshakes, pictures and even a selfie on stage. Cash flowing in, mega-projects announced one after the other, interrupted only by praises of the new Egypt and its newly-found stability.
The Islamic State of Oil
There are thousands of politically alienated and radicalized militants joining its ranks. There is an army of its supporters active on social media spinning its messages. They are releasing videos as gruesome as they are stylistically and technically advanced. Most notably, the group is shocking the world with its ability to rapidly expand its territory. This is IS, the self-proclaimed Islamic State of Iraq and Levant, a terrorist organization born from the ashes of Al-Qaeda in Iraq that is seeking the establishment of a new caliphate.
