The EIA expects around 600,000 b/d of Middle East oil production to remain shut in through the end of 2027, despite a gradual recovery in regional output and Hormuz flows from September.
The assessment comes as disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on energy infrastructure have significantly reduced oil production across the region, tightening global supply and pushing crude prices to multi-year highs.
According to the EIA’s August Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), around 5.5 million barrels per day (mmbbl/d) of Middle East oil production was shut in during July, equivalent to more than 5% of global oil consumption.