Global liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply is forecast to fall by almost 20 billion cubic metres (bcm), or 3% year-on-year (YoY), in 2026, marking the steepest annual decline on record as disruptions to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz tighten markets, according to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Global Gas Security Review 2026, published on November 3.
The report, which incorporates the IEA’s fourth-quarter gas market assessment, projected global natural gas demand to decline by around 1.5% YoY, or nearly 65 bcm, this year, marking its third annual contraction since 2020.
LNG loadings from Qatar and the UAE fell by around 60 bcm YoY between March and September 2026, while global LNG production declined by approximately 20 bcm during the period. Higher output from North America and Africa offset around two-thirds of the lost Gulf supplies.
The supply shock pushed European and Asian gas prices to their highest levels since the 2022-2023 energy crisis.
European benchmark TTF spot prices averaged about $21.5 per million British thermal units (mbtu) in the third quarter, up almost 90% YoY, while Asian spot LNG prices averaged $25.60/mbtu, an annual increase of 95%.
High prices are expected to weigh on consumption across major importing markets. Gas demand is forecast to decline by 10% YoY in the Middle East, 3% YoY in Europe and 1.5% YoY in Asia-Pacific in 2026. In contrast, African gas consumption is projected to grow by around 5% YoY, supported by demand from the power and energy sectors.
The IEA also warned that the European Union would enter the 2026-2027 heating season with its lowest gas storage levels since 2013. Under a scenario involving continued disruption to LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz and colder-than-average weather, EU storage could fall below 10% of working capacity by the end of March 2027, increasing exposure to supply shocks and price volatility.
The report called for stronger international co-operation and sustained investment across the gas and LNG value chains to improve supply security amid rising geopolitical risks.
