Goldman Sachs has increased its oil price projections for the fourth quarter (Q4), attributing the revision to reduced Middle East output, with Brent crude forecast at $90 per barrel and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at $83, Reuters reported.

In an April 26 report, analysts led by Daan Struyven, co-head of Global Commodities Research and head of Oil Research at Goldman Sachs, suggested that broader economic risks exceed the bank’s base crude scenario, highlighting upward pressure on oil prices, persistently high refined product prices, risks of supply shortages, and the magnitude of the current market disruption.

The updated forecast assumes Gulf exports through the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal by the end of June, later than the previously anticipated mid-May timeline, alongside a more gradual recovery in regional production.

The bank estimates that crude supply losses in the Middle East, amounting to around 14.5 million barrels per day (mmbbl/d), are contributing to an unprecedented global inventory draw of 11–12 mmbbl/d in April.

Goldman Sachs expects the global oil balance to reverse sharply, moving from a surplus of 1.8mmbbl/d in 2025 to a deficit of 9.6 mmbbl/d in the second quarter (Q2) of 2026.

On the demand side, global consumption is projected to decline by 1.7 mmbbl/d in Q2, with a further annual drop of 100,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2026, as higher refined product prices weigh on consumption.

The analysts noted that such significant inventory declines are unlikely to be maintained, warning that deeper demand reductions may be necessary should the supply shock persist.