US natural gas supply and demand are expected to reach record highs in 2026 and 2027, according to the US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Short-Term Energy Outlook.

Dry natural gas production is projected to increase from a record 107.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2025 to 111.7 bcfd in 2026 and 115.9 bcfd in 2027.

Meanwhile, domestic gas consumption is forecast to rise from a record 91.9 bcfd in 2025 to 92.2 bcfd in 2026 and 94.3 bcfd in 2027.

The EIA’s September production and demand forecasts for 2026 were higher than its August estimates of 111.2 bcfd and 92.0 bcfd, respectively.

US liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports are also expected to increase, reaching an average of 17.4 bcfd in 2026 and 18.6 bcfd in 2027, up from a record 15.1 bcfd in 2025.

The agency said US natural gas inventories are on track to begin the winter season on October 31 at around 5% above the five-year average, supported partly by rising production in the Permian and Haynesville shale regions.

The EIA expects US coal production to decline as power generators increasingly shift away from coal. Production is projected to fall from 528.4 million short tons in 2025 to 516.3 million tons (mmt) in 2026 and 496.7 mmt in 2027, the lowest level since 1963.

Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are also forecast to decline from a three-year high of 4.904 billion metric tons in 2025 to 4.821 billion metric tons in 2026 and 4.816 billion metric tons in 2027, driven by lower oil and coal consumption.