OPEC+ kept its oil production policy unchanged for October as disruptions from the Iran war continue to restrict crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz and limit the group’s ability to influence physical supply.

Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman agreed to maintain the policy during a meeting on Sunday. The seven producers are scheduled to meet again on October 4.

The decision follows the group’s September production increase, which completed the phased reversal of 1.65 million barrels per day (mmbbl/d) in voluntary supply cuts first introduced in 2023. However, OPEC+ continues to produce well below its targets as the war restricts regional exports.

“OPEC+ currently has very limited power over the physical oil market,” Jorge Leon of Rystad Energy said. “The group can change production targets on paper, but it cannot guarantee that those barrels will be produced or actually reach the market.”

OPEC+ must now review members’ production capacity before setting 2027 output baselines, which will determine future quotas. Another layer of production cuts covering most members of the 21-country group remains in place through the end of 2026.

The decision confirms expectations that emerged in July, when it was reported that OPEC+ was likely to pause production increases for three months starting in October after completing its planned September increase. Sources said the pause would leave around 2 mmbbl/d of cuts in place while the group discusses new production quotas for 2027.

At the time, sources also said disruptions linked to the Iran conflict had limited the effect of OPEC+ quota increases on actual supply, with no further production increases expected for the remainder of 2026.