OPEC+ is expected to pause its planned oil production increases for three months starting in October after completing the scheduled return of barrels to the market in September, Reuters reported, citing sources familiar with the matter.

According to the sources, the pause would keep around 2 million barrels per day (mmbbl/d) of OPEC+ production cuts in place beyond September while the alliance discusses new production quotas expected to take effect in January 2027.

The group’s current core producers, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman, are expected to meet on August 2 and likely approve an output increase of about 188,000 bbl/d for September, matching the monthly increases agreed for June, July, and August.

The September adjustment would complete the phased reversal of 1.65 mmbbl/d in voluntary production cuts introduced in 2023. However, Reuters noted that much of this year’s quota increases have had limited impact on actual supply, as disruptions related to the conflict involving Iran reduced exports from some Middle Eastern producers.

Sources told Reuters that no additional production increases are expected for the remainder of 2026, although no final decision has yet been made.

Market fundamentals are also expected to shape the alliance’s next steps. Reuters cited the International Energy Agency (IEA) as projecting a potential oil surplus in 2027, depending on whether oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz normalize.

OPEC+ currently consists of 21 oil-producing countries, including members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Russia, and other allied producers.