The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is expecting global oil demand to increase by 2.6 million barrels per day mmbbl/d in 2027, unchanged from its previous assessment, while forecasting modest growth of 200,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2026, according to its November Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR).
The organization projected global oil demand to average 105.7 mmbbl/d in 2026, before rising to 108.3 mmbbl/d in 2027.
Demand in countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is forecast to decline by around 200,000 bbl/d in 2026, while consumption in non-OECD countries is expected to increase by approximately 400,000 bbl/d.
In 2027, OECD oil demand is projected to grow by around 500,000 bbl/d, while non-OECD demand is expected to expand by approximately two mmbbl/d, OPEC said.
On the supply side, liquids production in non-Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) countries is forecast to increase by 600,000 bbl/d in both 2026 and 2027, reaching 54.8 mmbbl/d and 55.5 mmbbl/d, respectively.
Brazil, the US, Canada, and Argentina are expected to lead production growth in non-DoC countries in 2026. In 2027, growth is projected to be driven mainly by Qatar, Canada, Brazil, and Argentina.
Meanwhile, natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids production by DoC countries is forecast to increase by 100,000 bbl/d year over year to average 8.7 mmbbl/d in 2026. It is expected to rise by a further 100,000 bbl/d in 2027 to average 8.9 mmbbl/d.
According to secondary sources cited in the report, crude oil production by DoC countries increased by 2.04 mmbbl/d month over month in October to average 41.23 mmbbl/d.
Separately, OPEC’s Reference Basket (ORB) increased by $1.53 per barrel month over month in October to average $112.12 per barrel, while the ICE Brent front-month contract rose by $6.32 per barrel to $108.34 per barrel.
The organization revised its global economic growth forecast slightly upward to 3.1% for 2026, while maintaining its 2027 projection at 3.2%.
