Oil supply from non-OPEC countries is forecast to decline to 56.4mb/d in 2017 due the global oil prices drop and in result of which, OPEC will have to boost its production by 2020, a Bank of America’s (BoA) recently published report stated, according to Gulf Business. Non-OPEC production is likely to rebound to 57.5mb/d, but will take place no sooner than 2020. According to estimates, OPEC will need to increase its production by 4.1mb/d in the next five years to balance the market, Al Bawaba reported.
The US is projected to be the only non-OPEC country able to ramp up its production through shale by 2020, as the investment cycle for shale is shorter than for conventional production, the report clarified. With declining oil prices, below $30 per barrel, current production from mature fields is set to drop considerably. The global oil industry is to see a structural shift toward a lower price environment, the BoA’s report added.
In a related analysis cited by OilPrice, the International Energy Agency concluded that while global oil supplies expanded by 2.6mb/d in 2015, production growth in 2015 was evenly divided between OPEC and non-OPEC producers. By December 2015, however, growth had eased to 0.6mb/d, with non-OPEC production pegged below year-earlier levels, for the first time since September 2012.