The International Energy Agency (IEA) announced that global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 has been revised down to 730,000 barrels per day (bbl/d), a decrease of 300,000 bbl/d from the March report. The agency said that this decline is due to the escalating trade tensions that left a negative impact on the economic outlook.

Furthermore, global demand in 2026 is expected to drop to 690,000 bbl/d, as risks to the forecast remain high amid the fast-evolving macroeconomic backdrop.

These expectations are mainly impacted by the strong oil consumption in Q1 2025, up by 1.2 million barrels per day (mmbbl/d) year on year (YoY), which is the strongest rate since 2023.

IEA elaborated that in March, world oil supply surged by 590,000 bbl/d, recording 103.6 mmbbl/d, with non-OPEC+ leading both monthly and annual gains.

OPEC+, a collaboration between OPEC and other oil-producing nations led by Russia, announced that it will increase the production to 411,000 bbl/d in May, but this increase may be substantially lower given some countries’ overproduction, IEA said.