Russia’s state income from oil and gas is projected to fall sharply in February to around 410 billion roubles, nearly half the level recorded in the same month of 2025, according to Reuters estimates. The decline is attributed to the appreciation of the rouble and lower global oil prices.

Oil and gas proceeds remain the backbone of the Kremlin’s finances, contributing more than 20% of federal budget revenues. These earnings have been under pressure as government spending on defence and security has surged since Russia launched its military operation in Ukraine in February 2022.

Every month, revenues are forecast to edge up 3.1% compared with January, supported by the so-called damper mechanism, a subsidy arrangement typically paid to oil refiners. However, refiners are expected to transfer about 42 billion roubles back to the state this month, as domestic fuel price dynamics have reduced the profitability of exports.

For January and February combined, oil and gas income is expected to reach 800 billion roubles, significantly below the 1.56 trillion roubles recorded during the same period last year.

Under the 2026 federal budget plan, oil and gas revenues are projected at 8.92 trillion roubles, out of total anticipated budget income of 40.283 trillion roubles. In 2025, federal oil and gas revenues fell 24% year-on-year to 8.48 trillion roubles, marking their lowest level since 2020.

According to Russia’s Ministry of Finance, oil and gas revenues constitute a key component of federal budget income and are calculated based on tax proceeds from crude oil, natural gas, and petroleum products, including export duties and mineral extraction tax.