OPEC+ is inclined to resume gradual oil production increases starting in April, Reuters reported, according to three sources within the alliance, as the group positions itself ahead of stronger summer demand and firmer prices linked to escalating US-Iran tensions.

The potential move would enable leading producer Saudi Arabia and key member the UAE to recover market share. The shift comes as other members, including Russia and Iran, continue to face Western sanctions, while Kazakhstan’s production remains constrained by operational challenges and project setbacks.

If confirmed, the increase would mark a strategic adjustment by the alliance as it balances supply management with evolving geopolitical and market dynamics.

Ahead of its current deliberations, OPEC+ had agreed in late 2025 to pause planned oil production increases through the first quarter of 2026. Eight core members, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, and others, chose to maintain output at December levels during January–March, citing seasonal demand patterns and ongoing market uncertainty. The pause also reflects a cautious approach to unwinding prior voluntary cuts and adjusting supply based on evolving market conditions.