Iraq could ramp up its crude oil exports to around 3.4 million barrels per day (mmbbl/d) within a week if the ongoing Iran conflict de-escalates and the Strait of Hormuz reopens, according to the head of the state-run Basra Oil Company cited by Reuters.

An analysis indicated that Iraq has experienced the sharpest decline in oil revenues among Gulf producers due to the effective closure of the Strait, as the country lacks alternative export routes.

Despite the disruption, Iraq, the second-largest producer in OPEC, retains the capacity to swiftly return to pre-crisis output levels, which were impacted following US-Israeli strikes on Iran in late February that led to the shutdown of the key maritime corridor. The Strait of Hormuz typically facilitates nearly 20% of global oil and liquified natural gas (LNG) trade.

Basra Oil Company CEO Bassem Abdul Karim noted that Iran has so far issued only verbal assurances regarding the passage of Iraqi tankers through the Strait, with no formal documentation provided.

He added that current production from Iraq’s southern oilfields stands at approximately 900,000 barrels per day (bbl/d). However, exports could climb to 3.4 million (bbl/d) within a week if hostilities cease and safe navigation through the Strait is secured.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has warned, during a speech, of severe consequences for Tehran unless an agreement is reached to restore transit through the Strait of Hormuz.