ExxonMobil expects higher refining margins to boost its downstream earnings by $4.5 Bn in the third quarter (Q3) of 2026 compared with the previous quarter, Reuters reported on October 16.
The company’s adjusted net profit from refining could reach $8.5 Bn, more than double the previous quarter’s level, BMO Capital Markets analyst Phillip Jungwirth said, citing the company’s regulatory filing.
Refining margins have surged amid the ongoing US-Iran war, which has restricted energy exports through the Strait of Hormuz, and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries.
The higher margins could offset lower upstream earnings. ExxonMobil expects upstream earnings to decline by $1.3 Bn quarter on quarter (QoQ) as the average closing Brent crude price fell by approximately 5.6% in Q3 compared with the previous quarter, LSEG data showed.
The company also expects the divestment of some upstream assets to boost earnings by $700 Mn. It reported no volume-related disruptions during the quarter stemming from the Iran war.
Higher fuel prices have increased political pressure on US President Donald Trump’s administration ahead of the November midterm elections. The expected refining windfall could further strain relations between the administration and US oil companies, after Trump criticized ExxonMobil and Chevron in August for making what he described as excessive profits.
ExxonMobil plans to release its full Q3 results on October 30.
ExxonMobil operates 21 refineries with nearly 5 million barrels per day of distillation capacity, the company said in its Downstream business overview. In May 2024, the company completed its acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources, more than doubling its Permian Basin footprint and expanding its upstream portfolio.
