China’s state-run refiners are expected to replenish their oil inventories at a rate of 400,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) between November and April after drawing on reserves to cushion the impact of higher prices caused by the US-Iran war, Bloomberg reported on 14 October, citing political risk consultancy Eurasia Group.

In a note dated 13 October, the consultancy said Beijing had centralized crude oil inventory management since April and extended the mandatory replenishment period for refiners to three to five months, from one to two months previously.

The measures would allow Beijing to manage inventory drawdowns and replenishment schedules centrally, helping maintain domestic supply during external disruptions while avoiding purchases at unfavorable prices, Eurasia said.

China has relied on its substantial oil stockpiles and temporarily suspended some fuel exports to cushion the impact of surging prices amid the US-Iran war, which is entering its eighth month.

The country’s strategic petroleum reserve, equivalent to 120 days of crude oil imports, remains untouched, according to the consultancy.

Beijing is likely to prioritise domestic fuel supplies over export margins, with the National Development and Reform Commission often delaying confirmation of allocations for overseas shipments until the last minute, according to Eurasia.

A blanket export ban is unlikely, as China would be reluctant to disrupt supplies to key trading partners, including Southeast Asian countries and Australia, or create further friction with the US, the consultancy added.