bp, the British energy major, forecasts its upstream production in the fourth quarter (Q4) of  2025 to be broadly in line with the previous quarter, with stable output in oil production and operations offset by lower volumes in the gas and low-carbon energy segment.

In its gas and low-carbon energy division, bp expects revenues to decline by $100 million to $300 million compared to the third quarter (Q3) of 2025, according to a press release by the company.

This downturn primarily reflects weaker natural gas prices, specifically within non-Henry Hub benchmarks. Meanwhile, performance in gas marketing and trading is projected to remain average throughout the period.

In oil production and operations, revenues are also expected to weigh on results, with an estimated impact of $200 million to $400 million versus the previous quarter.

The company cited the effect of price lags on production in the Gulf of America and the United Arab Emirates as key factors.

Overall, while production levels remain largely unchanged quarter-on-quarter, lower realizations across both segments are expected to pressure upstream earnings in the final quarter of the year.

The company reported an underlying replacement cost (RC) profit of $2.2 billion in Q3 of 2025, broadly in line with the $2.26 billion posted in the same period last year.