Egypt’s natural gas sector spent 2025 performing a delicate balancing act between mounting domestic pressures and regional opportunity. Through a mix of emergency import strategies and long-term agreements, the government managed to stabilize supply during the critical summer months while reshaping Egypt’s future role as an Eastern Mediterranean gas hub, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (eia). In 2025, the focus shifted from managing emergencies to actively transforming energy security under tight constraints.

The Great Import Surge

2025 saw a historic shift in Egypt’s energy balance as the country transitioned from a net exporter to a substantial net importer. Egypt’s Liquified natural gas (LNG) imports jumped by a staggering 188% year-on-year during the first 11 months of 2025, reaching approximately 7.8 million tons (or around 10 bcm year-to-date), according to CNN Business and International Energy Agency (IEA) analysis. This surge was reflected in the national accounts, with the petroleum import bill seeing a 53.3% annual spike to reach $9.7 billion in the first half of the fiscal year, driven largely by a $2.1 billion increase in natural gas purchases, according to the Balance of Payments (BoP).

To manage this massive influx, the government ramped up its regasification capacity by chartering multiple Floating Storage Regasification Units (FSRUs), including vessels such as Höegh Galleon and Energos Power. “The rapid deployment of multiple FSRUs at Ain Sokhna, Aleandria and Damietta enabled the system to absorb rising LNG imports and avoid renewed power disruptions during peak cooling demand,” stated Carole Etienne, Energy Analyst for LNG, Natural Gas and Low-Emissions Gases at the IEA.

Securing the Summer Peak

Egypt’s energy security faced a critical challenge in the summer of 2025 when power consumption hit a record high of 39,500 MW in August, exceeding the previous year’s high of 38,000 MW, according to the National Energy Control Centre. This peak occurred just as natural gas supplies began to tighten, testing the limits of the national network. As a result, the government moved to line up imported LNG and additional regasification capacity to keep the national grid stable.

A key element of this strategy was an estimated $3 billion LNG supply arrangement with Shell and TotalEnergies to deliver around 60 cargoes through 2025. This was later expanded as the government set conditions to import up to 160 cargoes across 2025 and 2026 to ensure a reliable ‘cushion’ for the power sector. “Egypt’s response to the 2025 summer stress test demonstrated strong crisis-management capability,” Etienne noted, adding that the near halting of LNG exports—down by a further 0.5 bcm in 2025—highlighted how domestic security took precedence over Egypt’s former role as a regional LNG hub.

Landmark Regional Partnerships

Moving beyond immediate operational responses, Egypt turned into regional agreements and partnerships to solidify its energy security. Israel’s Leviathan partners and Egypt signed a natural gas supply agreement worth about $35 billion, positioning Israeli natural gas—which already supplies around 10–11 bcm/yr (covering roughly 15% of total gas demand of about 66 bcm/yr)—as a major structural pillar of Egypt’s import portfolio.

According to World Oil, the Leviathan deal is expected to be implemented in stages starting in 2026, with volumes directed both to Egypt’s domestic power system and its idle LNG export capacity. “From the IEA’s perspective, Egypt’s turn toward import-led gas security has improved short-term reliability but remains structurally constrained,” Etienne explained, noting that while stabilizing domestic production and planned debottlenecking of the Israel–Egypt pipeline could moderate LNG import growth in 2026, robust demand will keep import needs elevated.

Production Rebound

Despite the heavy focus on imports, 2025 did not pass without positive movement on the domestic front, as Egypt’s oil and natural gas production began to climb again following a four-year slump. According to the Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources (MoPMR), total domestic production across the sector rose to approximately 1.6 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (mmboed) by late 2025. Industry coverage pointed to additional natural gas volumes from assets such as BP’s West Nile Delta area, specifically the Raven field, which contributed approximately 200 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd) to help stabilize national output.

Most notably, production at the Zohr field stabilized around 1.2 bcfd in 2025, contributing to a total national production of about 6 bcfd, according to the official website of the Egyptian Presidency. While this output reflects significant recovery, it remains slightly below the domestic consumption rate of 6.3–6.4 bcfd, leaving a daily deficit of approximately 300–400 mmcfd. Official statements note that anticipated Zohr production increases position Egypt to restore natural gas self-sufficiency.

“IEA experience with gas-producing countries facing similar challenges suggests Egypt’s policy focus over the medium term would benefit from a carefully balanced approach, combining short-term import flexibility with measures to stabilise and gradually strengthen domestic production,” Etienne advised. She highlighted priority areas such as accelerating investment in mature fields, improving recovery rates through brownfield optimisation, and enhancing upstream fiscal frameworks to progressively narrow the structural supply-consumption gap over the next three to five years.

However, as noted by official presidency statements, with the anticipated production increases planned for the Zohr field, Egypt is positioned to bridge this gap and restore its status of natural gas self-sufficiency. While new exploration and development agreements signed in 2025 with international oil companies are promising, these projects will require several years before shifting the national balance.

While 2025 proved that Egypt can manage near-term energy security through agile deal-making and massive import scaling, the year also clarified the stakes for the medium term. Egypt’s hub strategy will succeed only if the country balances its new import backbone with renewed investment in exploration, infrastructure, and system flexibility. “Resilience in seasonal demand environments requires not only regasification capacity, but also storage, flexible contracts, improved forecasting, and a balanced interaction between supply-side tools and demand-side responsiveness,” Etienne concluded, underscoring the lessons learned from Egypt’s 2025 experience.