The devastating conflict between Hamas and Israeli forces in Gaza has caused immense suffering, particularly for innocent civilians who have borne the brunt of the violence. Despite the Israeli campaign to eradicate Hamas, the goal seems increasingly distant, leaving Gaza in a state of uncertainty. While the future remains uncertain, several potential scenarios could unfold for post-war Gaza.
The scenarios for a post-war Gaza are varied, each presenting its own challenges and complexities. However, the revival of the two-state solution remains the preferred option among world powers.
Forced Displacement Denied
One scenario that has been vehemently rejected is forced displacement. Some Israeli officials have suggested pushing Gaza residents out of their lands as a means to resolve the conflict. However, this suggestion has been met with strong opposition from Egypt and other Arab countries. Arab states have made it clear that they are not willing to take in Palestinian refugees, as this could result in their permanent displacement. Jordan has also warned against Palestinians being forced off their land. The United States has also rejected the forced displacement of Palestinians from Gaza. Forced migration not only violates fundamental rights, but also fails to present a viable solution to the underlying issues.
With forced displacement off the table, Israel is left with few options and challenging scenarios in their attempt to take over Gaza. One possibility is the reoccupation of Gaza by Israeli forces, which would involve maintaining control over the region and potentially leading to an extended period of military rule. However, this measure could perpetuate instability, fuel further resistance, and exacerbate tensions within the international community, something Israel cannot afford.
Another scenario is the continuation of the status quo with tightened restrictions on Gaza residents. This scenario would involve stricter control over the movement of people, goods, and services in an effort to suppress Hamas and maintain security. However, this scenario is expected to hinder the process of Gaza reconstruction and perpetuate violence, potentially leading to a never-ending cycle of conflict.
Another scenario is the continuation of the current situation with restrictions and a potential elimination of Hamas, allowing the return of the Fatah movement to govern Gaza. However, challenges include the credibility and legitimacy of a Fatah-led government, the potential for renewed violence, and the difficulty in completely eliminating Hamas.
Revival of Two-State Solution
Some suggest that Gaza could be governed by Arab neighboring countries or international peace forces to ensure stability and security. However, challenges may arise in coordinating efforts, securing cooperation from all parties, and establishing a structure that is acceptable to all stakeholders. Israel is likely to refuse this solution, especially under the current religious-right government. Reconstruction and economic recovery would remain difficult under this scenario.
Despite these challenges, world powers view the revival of the two-state solution as the most viable option for a peaceful settlement. The creation of an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel could address the grievances and aspirations of both Palestinians and Israelis. President El-Sisi of Egypt has emphasized that the two-state solution is “the only way out” of the Israeli war on Gaza. This stance has been concurred by Arab states and the European Union.
The two-state solution has gained momentum with the US President, Joe Biden, refusing to return to the status quo in Gaza and asserting that a two-state solution must be considered. China has also called for a concrete timetable and roadmap for a two-state solution.
However, this solution still faces obstacles such as disagreements over borders, the status of Jerusalem, the right of return for Palestinian refugees, and overall political will from all parties involved. President El-Sisi has called on the international community to recognize the Palestinian State and admit it to the United Nations, emphasizing the need for a different approach to the two-state solution.
To achieve a lasting settlement, world powers must play an active role through diplomatic efforts, economic aid, security cooperation, and support for reconciliation. When the guns are silenced, concerted international efforts can pave the way for a peaceful and stable future for Gaza.
